Wire · AZ Weekly Post
The federal government’s August jobs report is widely expected to show a continuation of this summer’s soft hiring numbers, just one month after the labor market contracted by 23,000 jobs. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected overall hiring of 53,000 roles in August and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. If accurate, this would mark the third weakest month for overall hiring so far this year.
Wage growth is expected to be anemic at 0.3% month-over-month and 3% annually. A slowing wage growth trend would be challenging for consumers, particularly those in lower-income tiers. Inflation in July was 3.4% year-over-year, but rising energy prices could worsen this trend.
Brent crude oil prices surged past $97 per barrel before closing around $95, marking a 20% increase since August 4. August inflation data won’t be released until September 11, but any uptick from July would widen the gap between wage growth and rising prices. Historically, August is a weak month for U.S. job growth, with the report falling short of expectations in 11 of the last 16 years.
JPMorgan economist Abiel Reinhart noted that private jobs have fallen in August over the past two years. Another factor is the end of Temporary Protected Status for around 350,000 Haitians on July 27, potentially impacting job availability. ADP’s payroll report showed private employers added only 38,000 positions in August, with large firms adding most roles but medium-sized firms showing no growth.
Vanguard estimated only 8,000 jobs were added, indicating a slowdown concentrated in recruitment rather than layoffs. This leaves new labor force entrants and job seekers facing tough conditions.
Source: NBC News
